Is North Korea Really Prepared to Invade South Korea?

North-South-KoreaNorth Korea has 1 million active military troops. It has 3,500 tanks, 72 submarines, over 21,000 artillery pieces and 1,000 ballistic missiles, many with a range of 500 kilometres. In contrast, South Korea has barely half the military forces of its northern neighbour.

Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Un has repeatedly threatened to attack the South. Its capital, Seoul, is just 56 kilometres from the border. North Korea has several thousand artillery pieces aimed at the city. According to Time magazine, they could flatten Seoul in just half an hour. Kim also has an untold number of sleeper agents ready and waiting to seize strategic South Korean sites in preparation for an invasion.

But would Kim Jong-Un really invade South Korea?

North and South Korea have been at war for the past 65 years. When the Korean War ended in 1953, they only signed an armistice, not a peace treaty. Today tensions remain high and have escalated under Kim Jong-Un’s leadership. In August 2015, he ordered artillery strikes across the border. In September, he made new threats to launch long-range rockets, and reactivated the nuclear programme.

Kim Jong-Un has inherited an economically devastated country that is increasingly less stable. In order to maintain his control, Kim has stepped outside the boundaries of mass brainwashing through propaganda, and into terrifying displays of force. He has disposed of nearly all his father’s advisors and even executed his own uncle in 2013.

Such displays of force are consistent with his public threats against South Korea. It may be that the mere pressure of a poor economy, a transient population and the need to appear strong will drive Kim Jong-Un to invade. Professor Robert Farley says that there are two circumstances under which North Korea might invade the south.

The first is in the event of a worldwide economic collapse. The 2008 global financial crisis showed just how vulnerable the capitalist system is without socialist state intervention to rescue it. If a similar crash reoccurred, North Korea’s enemies – including the USA, South Korea and, especially, Japan – would be weakened, creating an opportunity for North Korea to seize a swift victory.

The second scenario would be in the event of a South Korean or US attack. The north would likely think it has nothing to lose, and immediately invade the south. As a victim of US aggression, it’s highly likely that China would step in to help North Korea. If this happened, then there is a chance North Korea would yet again defeat capitalism. Of course, all of this speculation is moot in the light of North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction. It has approximately 20 nuclear warheads, and possibly another 20 by 2016. Their range is not sufficient to reach America, but they could easily hit the US base in Guam, Japan and the entirety of South Korea.

With such a threat at its disposal, North Korea is in a position to strike first, either with the nuclear capability or with a ground invasion. But despite the overwhelming size of North Korea’s military forces and its nuclear capability, the country remains weak. According to former members of the North Korean state, its army relies on obsolete rifles from the First World War. And while it has 563 combat aircraft, they are desperately out of date. In 2014, every single plane was grounded for emergency maintenance. It is likely that in a war, South Korea’s superior pilots and planes would win the day.

Furthermore, morale in North Korea is reportedly at an all-time low, due to mass starvation, forced military service and poor training. The size of North Korea’s army may mean nothing if many of its troops refuse to fight.

North Korea may be unable to hold its own against the modernised South Korean forces – especially if South Korea has America’s support, which is almost certain, given that America already has 28,500 troops stationed in the South.

Against these odds, any rational mind would expect North Korea to avoid invasion and the risk of war. But Kim Jong-Un does not have a rational mind. According to neuroscientist and psychologist Professor Ian Robertson, Kim Jong-Un’s primary motivation as a leader is to continue the family dynasty. Unlike his father and grandfather, he has never experienced poverty or been a revolutionary. Professor Robertson says his life of comfort makes him reluctant to take risks, yet paranoid about failing his family legacy.

So whether or not North Korea will invade, is down to the mind of Kim Jong-Un.

One Comment

  1. Keith wade says:

    Why does everyone in the free world continue to call that little monkey named Kim “the supreme leader” ? If you ever have his ear tell him I will show him supremacy by giving him a supreme ASS kicking. I’m not talkig about a regular ass wooping. I’m talking a southern redneck ass kicking. You can then say he got supremacy then. Especially after losing all his teeth from my supreme knuckles. I think it’s obsurb to continue to call this idiot dictator anything near supreme. Is this article wrote by a North Korean or do you truly believe he is supreme

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